Comparing the Patrick Mahomes card market to other young QBs

February 15, 2023

Last week, Patrick Mahomes added some more hardware to his already impressive trophy case by leading the Chiefs to a second Super Bowl victory in four years, as well as picking up Super Bowl, and NFL regular season MVP trophies. While many collectors have already been priced out of Mahomes’ market, there’s always a question of who could be the next young QB to match Mahomes in value.

We took a look at Mahomes compared to nine QBs in his general age range (23-27), measuring the current ALT Values of two of their rookie cards - a National Treasures RPA/99 in a BGS 9.5 and a Select Field Level Silver Prizm in a PSA 10. The numbered rankings below come from NFL.com’s year end starting QB rankings, a list that started with Mahomes at #1 (who is featured below) and ended with Zach Wilson at #32 (who is not). 

1. Patrick Mahomes

Age: 27

Seasons as a starter: 5

Playoff appearances: 5

Super Bowl appearances: 3

Super Bowl rings: 2 

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $128,764 (pop: 21)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $4,499 (pop: 107)

Not surprisingly, Mahomes is far pricier than any of the other QBs on this list. But that’s what happens when you have more MVPs and Super Bowl appearances than everyone else on this list combined. 

2. Jalen Hurts

Age: 24

Seasons as a starter: 2

Playoff appearances: 1

Super Bowl appearances: 1

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $33,385 (pop: 6)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $373 (pop: 217)

While collectors are understandably wary about the longevity of mobile QBs, all Hurts did this year was lead his team to the top seed in the NFC and a close Super Bowl loss to the guy at #1 on this list. So not only are his prices lower than some of the names listed below, he also has way less QB competition than his AFC counterparts. Food for thought as you’re considering picking up NFL cards this offseason. 

3. Joe Burrow

Age: 26

Seasons as a starter: 3

Playoff appearances: 2

Super Bowl appearances: 1

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $40,727 (pop: 18)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $944 (pop: 480)

4. Josh Allen

Age: 26

Seasons as a starter: 5

Playoff appearances: 4

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $49,467 (pop: 16)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $1,631 (pop: 178)

5. Justin Herbert 

Age: 24

Seasons as a starter: 3

Playoff appearances: 1

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $49,423 (pop: 16)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $537 (pop: 465)

The only strike against this trio of Hobby favorites is that in order to even reach the Super Bowl, they have to go through not only Mahomes, but each other as well. So far only Burrow has succeeded there. But all three are on pace to have stellar careers with stats that blow past some of the Hall of Famers who came before them. 

6. Trevor Lawrence

Age: 23

Seasons as a starter: 2

Playoff appearances: 1

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $23,380 (pop: 4)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $660 (pop: 64)

The youngest name on this list, Lawrence separated himself from his QB Class of 2021 counterparts with a massive Wild Card comeback victory against the man right ahead of him on this list. T-Law’s high-end pricing remains lower than the guys with a few more years experience, so who’s to say his numbers can’t match theirs in a couple years? 

7. Tua Tagovailoa

Age: 24

Seasons as a starter: 3

Playoff appearances: 0

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $12,583 (pop: 12)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $144 (pop: 232)

Calling Tua the 7th best QB of 2022 comes with one major caveat, namely that he had a series of concussions that lead to questions about his NFL future. The talent is there, just depends on your appetite for risk. 

12. Lamar Jackson

Age: 26

Seasons as a starter: 5

Playoff appearances: 3

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $13,844 (pop: 21)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $450 (pop: 189)

The only other QB on this list with an MVP award, Jackson’s future is also up in the air, as rumors are swirling about him leaving Baltimore this offseason. One of the NFL’s most electrifying players when healthy, he’s been overshadowed in the Hobby by more traditional QBs. But he’s younger than you think, and relatively affordable for someone this accomplished. 

16. Kyler Murray 

Age: 25

Seasons as a starter: 4

Playoff appearances: 1

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9.5 ALT Value: $4,882 (pop: 20)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $151 (pop: 500)

Murray’s market came crashing down after a disappointing start to the year followed by a season-ending ACL surgery. As the only non-Hurts NFC QB listed here, there’s a path back to stardom, but a lot needs to go right before that happens. 

26. Mac Jones

Age: 24

Seasons as a starter: 2

Playoff appearances: 1

Super Bowl appearances: 0

National Treasures RPA/99 BGS 9 ALT Value: $3,006 (pop: 12*)

Select Field Level Silver Prizm PSA 10 ALT Value: $207 (pop: 35)

*No BGS 9.5s in circulation 

Mac’s sophomore struggles in New England were well documented, but a new offensive coaching staff and (perhaps) some new receivers will help him rediscover the trajectory he seemed to be on after his rookie year.